Ōtautahi – Forty three percent 43 percent of Kiwis expect house prices to fall in the coming year, which is a further fall from the 31 percent last quarter, ASB says in its latest survey.
This compares with 55 percent of Kiwis expecting house price decreases at the height of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008.
Meanwhile, a net two percent of respondents say it’s not a good time to buy a house.
More than three quarters of respondents expect higher interest rates over the next year, in line with forecasts.
New Zealanders’ house price expectations fell again in the three months to January, closing in on lows last seen during the GFC, the latest ASB housing confidence survey shows.
ASB senior economist Kim Mundy says sentiment is likely to fall further says the housing market has been weak of late and it doesn’t look like it’s going to turn around any time soon.
Housing market activity is heavily linked to the interest rate outlook so it’s not surprising people’s price expectations keep falling given the Reserve Bank has signalled there are more official cash rate hikes to come.
House price falls have already been higher on a percentage basis than what we saw during the GFC so we might see net price expectations drop down to a GFC low, if not surpass that, in the coming quarters,” Mundy says.
South Islanders outside of Canterbury were the most pessimistic about price expectations, shifting from a net 21 percent of respondents last quarter expecting prices to decrease in the coming year, to net 47 percent this quarter.
The upper North Island was similar with net 46 percent saying they thought prices would fall.
“Possibly we’re seeing the regions playing catch up. We saw prices drop in the main centres such as Auckland and Wellington first because affordability was most constrained. However, we are now seeing widespread house price falls across the regions as interest rates continue to climb.”
After reaching positive territory last quarter, respondents’ views on whether it is a good time to buy have once again turned negative, with net 2 percent saying it was a bad time to buy.
Auckland remains the sole optimistic region, albeit less so than in the three months to October – net 2 percent think it is a good time to buy, down from net nine percent. All other regions on balance felt it was a bad time to buy.
The latest ASB survey shows a net 78 percent of respondents expect interest rates to keep rising over the
coming 12 months, with views on this pretty certain – just 9 percent said they weren’t sure compared to the usual average of 21 percent.
Results at a glance
Embargoed Monday 6 March 2023
Kiwi house price expectations nearing GFC lows
Ōtautahi – Forty three percent 43 percent of Kiwis expect house prices to fall in the coming year, which is a further fall from the 31 percent last quarter, ASB says in its latest survey.
This compares with 55 percent of Kiwis expecting house price decreases at the height of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008.
Meanwhile, a net two percent of respondents say it’s not a good time to buy a house.
More than three quarters of respondents expect higher interest rates over the next year, in line with forecasts.
New Zealanders’ house price expectations fell again in the three months to January, closing in on lows last seen during the GFC, the latest ASB housing confidence survey shows.
ASB senior economist Kim Mundy says sentiment is likely to fall further says the housing market has been weak of late and it doesn’t look like it’s going to turn around any time soon.
Housing market activity is heavily linked to the interest rate outlook so it’s not surprising people’s price expectations keep falling given the Reserve Bank has signalled there are more official cash rate hikes to come.
House price falls have already been higher on a percentage basis than what we saw during the GFC so we might see net price expectations drop down to a GFC low, if not surpass that, in the coming quarters,” Mundy says.
South Islanders outside of Canterbury were the most pessimistic about price expectations, shifting from a net 21 percent of respondents last quarter expecting prices to decrease in the coming year, to net 47 percent this quarter.
The upper North Island was similar with net 46 percent saying they thought prices would fall.
“Possibly we’re seeing the regions playing catch up. We saw prices drop in the main centres such as Auckland and Wellington first because affordability was most constrained. However, we are now seeing widespread house price falls across the regions as interest rates continue to climb.”
After reaching positive territory last quarter, respondents’ views on whether it is a good time to buy have once again turned negative, with net 2 percent saying it was a bad time to buy.
Auckland remains the sole optimistic region, albeit less so than in the three months to October – net 2 percent think it is a good time to buy, down from net nine percent. All other regions on balance felt it was a bad time to buy.
The latest ASB survey shows a net 78 percent of respondents expect interest rates to keep rising over the
coming 12 months, with views on this pretty certain – just 9 percent said they weren’t sure compared to the usual average of 21 percent.
Results at a glance
