Tāmaki Makaurau – From floods to unseasonably chilly temperatures and gale force winds to droughts, Aotearoa and the world has already seen its share of strange weather this year.
As climate change intensifies, extreme weather events like heat waves, hurricanes, and droughts will continue to be more common.
As weather conditions change, it’s essential to know what’s coming. We need accurate weather forecasts on many different time scales in order to prepare for climate-related disasters, manage the power supply, plan agriculture, keep transportation running smoothly, and much more.
However, we find ourselves in a catch-22, because as weather conditions change and intensify, they become even harder to forecast.
But scientists are increasingly looking to AI to help us predict the weather and some of the most promising approaches come from blending AI with existing scientific knowledge.
Better forecasts play an important role in efforts to combat climate change. Ideally, with the increased use of data and artificial intelligence (AI) we can get better at predicting the scale of extreme weather events and where damage is most likely to occur.
Rainfall and climate records, plus crowd-sourced data can be tested with flood simulations. If New Zealand can improve predictions for natural disasters in advance, it will also enable more targeted responses.
If the data and modelling show certain areas are at greater risk we can move people to safety earlier, activate damage control faster (for example, stream diversions) and enable smart investment to mitigate future impacts.
In today’s world, forecasts are made by supercomputers processing vast amounts of data gathered from radar, satellites, weather balloons, ocean buoys, and surface-level sensors.
It shines at identifying patterns in massive amounts of data and predicting what will come next. AI excels at nowcasting, which is weather-speak for what’s coming in the next few hours.
Clean energy is one of many areas where accurate weather prediction, especially seasonal forecasting, is crucial.
Better forecasts also help governments and communities anticipate and prepare for extreme weather events.
Farmers, who know more about weather and weather patterns than most people, can adapt seasonal farm practices to avoid increasingly unexpected floods, droughts, frosts, and heat waves.
Shipping and airline companies can plan around weather to ensure safe transport, and businesses can manage weather-related disruptions in their supply chains. And all of us can better plan trips, activities, and gatherings that depend on the weather.
